The four P’s of the future

Description

Introduce the group to the 4 P's:

- Plausible futures: Possibilities that could happen given the bounds of uncertainty "could happen"
- Probable futures: Scenarios and possibilities that are likely to happen "likely to happen"
- Possible futures: The widest range of scenarios, including all possibilities "might happen"
- Preferred future: The vision we have for possibilities we want to see come true "should happen"

Choose a topic or phenomenon that you want to view. Also choose a timeline you look at: 2 years from now, 2030, when the participants are 70 years old... Make the chosen time scale as concrete as possible.

Start the discussion on a chosen topic going through all the P's: what is most/least likely to happen, what should happen, what could happen... Facilitator can initiate the discussion with what if... questions. Let the group imagination and creativity run wild but also based on current science and facts. Write down the notes or record the discussion for further processing if needed.

Reflection: how difficult it is to think of the future? How far ahead you can think of? Which of the P's were easy and which challenging?

Variations

A 5th P can be added: proposterous "won't ever happen" fantastic, ridiculous, extraordinary... A way to stretch ones thinking. Paying in mind "won't ever happen" has been happening every now and then in the history.

It is possible to use a visual tool called "Futures cone" or Cone of possibility" to make the different future scenarios more visible. see resources.

The participants can also use drawing or cutting out images from magazines/online to a collage as a tool for creative and analytical thinking.

Resources

Futures cone https://futures-matter.com/the-futures-cone-expand-your-possibilities/

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